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January, Sunday

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This decade, Netflix will end Real Estate as we know it

11 March, 2020
Joel Leslie

I recently wrote a short piece on LinkedIn that looked back on technology that made the past decade, The Technology We Made Last Decade. It was a very entertaining exercise, life without Snapchat, Instagram, Uber, iPad, and 4G. I didn't originally include WeWork, as the company is not a technology company per se and its 2019 IPO issues, but yes, it did change the working environment for many businesses from 2010 and as such, should probably be considered.

From technology to the working environment, real estate is at a tipping point. The growth of new technologies and business process improvements has presented itself right on cue for 2020 and the view to the next 10 or 20 years is a very different landscape to what we have experienced this far.

It has been 20 years since real estate entered the online space, significantly shifting the way in which buyers and sellers view and market their properties for sale. Zillow launched in 2004, 1996 for Realtor.com, 2000 for RightMove and 1995 for realestate.com.au. That is twenty years of searching for property the exact same way.

Since the entry of these Property Portals, we've seen the likes of Facebook, Google, Twitter, YouTube, Uber, Netflix, Apple iPhone & iPad come to fruition and the demise of established multi-billion dollar enterprises like Kodak, Nokia, Motorola, Blockbuster and (arguably) General Motors.

Of the past twenty years, technological change has been extensive in real estate, to say the least, and has either directly or indirectly affected the way real estate is sold. From the local real estate office to the franchise group and brokerage, consumer behavior is driving change and is now more increasingly easily able to do so, with consumer-led technology.

Social Media is the perfect example of consumer-led technology, albeit the consumer is a commodity on these platforms, and are using Social Media to force change and receive goods, services or information the way they would like it delivered.

The rise to fame of these social platforms is due to a number of reasons such as technology advancements, the right place at the right time and the type of content being published. As an example of growth, Facebook grew from 500 million users in 2010 to more than 2.3 billion users in 2019, taking the lead from YouTube in 2010 for the first time (YouTube had 480 million users in 2010, 1.9 billion in 2019). Real estate platforms have not grown to this extent.

A significant factor in the success of Social Media is the empowerment of the Social Media user. It took 73 years for the washing machine to reach the same level of market saturation that social media achieved in a single decade. Consumers are seeking better, more cost-effective ways to engage with brands, products, and services. This also means buyers and sellers are seeking better ways to search, buy and sell real estate.

The change in real estate does not end and stop at the consumer, real estate business owners are also eager for change. They are seeking more productive and less convoluted processes to sell, manage and transact a property.

And Venture Capitalists know it. In 2018, the most investment, ever, poured into Proptech and according to CB INSIGHTS, "The Rise of Real Estate Tech 2018" reached more than $4 billion USD and this is conservative estimations, many companies disclose more than 10 times this amount. According to Crunchbase and Pitchbook, upwards of $16 billion in venture capital has flowed into real estate-related startups in 2019.

But if we take a look back at the change of the past 10 to 20 years, it is evident that transparency, simplicity, and productivity are the most pertinent items for change. It will be these areas that alter the landscape of the future real estate office and property transaction. Technology that directly addresses these areas will most certainly make existing players redundant and do not think for one minute that large enterprises can't fail. An example of billion-dollar entities failing to innovate is Kodak, AGFA, Konica, Motorola, Nokia and Blockbuster to name a few.

It is highly probable that the real estate office of 2029 will look nothing like it does today. Possibly more smaller offices in more accessible areas, controlled by larger, regional offices is a very interesting view. This model has been trialed (quite successfully) by CLIMB Real Estate in San Francisco, where the company employs the use of Air Streams across the region to boost the company's footprint. Very clever, inexpensive means to significantly grow territory. The model may not work for everyone, perhaps a WeWork environment more matches, but it is a working example of simplicity and cost efficiencies.

Another area of real estate that will change is in which buyers and sellers are matched. The real estate agent or broker will not be replaced, but they will definitely have smart virtual assistants. Like Alexa or Siri on steroids. These virtual employees will control the diary and contact database of the real estate agent, matching, in real-time, buyers & sellers via the real estate agent.

Property marketing will change over the next 10 years and has already begun. There is a strong move away from traditional Internet Marketing, as identified by Price Waterhouse Cooper (PwC) in their recent Media Outlook. PwC forecast that Internet Advertising will decline from 1st place to 3rd, replaced by Virtual Reality and OTT (Streaming). This prediction is a staggering one, for the first time, a significant shift in consumer search behavior will occur that has not changed in 20 years. PwC forecast by 2023, OTT will double in size and value.

Regardless of the companies that survive these next 10 years, the technology landscape will look a lot different to it does today. The real estate office will be leaner, but more powerful. Transparency will gain velocity, providing an arsenal of information to the consumer. AI will drive simplicity, streamlining already streamlined processes and mitigating those that are not.

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